Will Indianapolis home prices drop? The September numbers show prices holding. The median sale price of a single-family home in central Indiana was $320,000, up 1.3% from a year earlier (MIBOR, September 2026). Everything around that price has changed: more homes for sale, slower sales and a 30-year mortgage rate near 7.2%.
This post is the fall update to our January forecast. It covers the local numbers, Zillow's forecast, the payment math and the signals that would point to lower prices.
The short answer
- Prices are slightly higher than a year ago. MIBOR's September median of $320,000 compares with $315,800 in September 2025. It sits 2.9% below August's $329,548.
- Zillow's forecast for the Indianapolis metro is a small gain. It shows +0.2% by October 2026 and +1.9% by September 2027, measured from Zillow's September 30, 2026 home value index. A forecast is a model's best guess, and models miss.
- Supply is building. Active single-family listings rose 16.3% year over year, while closed sales fell 3.5% (MIBOR, September 2026).
- The mortgage rate is up nearly a full point. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.18% in the week of November 5, 2026, against 6.22% a year earlier (Freddie Mac).
Nobody can promise where prices go from here, and we will not try. For a deeper read on who holds the leverage right now, see Is Indianapolis a Buyer's Market?
What the September MIBOR numbers show
MIBOR REALTOR Association publishes monthly local housing data from its Broker Listing Cooperative. The report covers single-family homes in the 17 central Indiana counties it tracks. Here is September 2026 against September 2025.
| Measure (MIBOR, single-family) | September 2025 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $315,800 | $320,000 | Up 1.3% |
| Closed sales | 2,640 | 2,549 | Down 3.5% |
| Active listings | 6,369 | 7,405 | Up 16.3% |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | 2.9 | Up 0.5 months |
| Median days on market | 20 | 27 | Up 7 days |
| Sale price as a share of list price | 97.9% | 98.1% | Up 0.2 points |
Price barely moved while the pace of the market changed. The typical home sold for 98.1% of its list price, a hair above last year. Listings piled up because fewer homes sold, and the median home sat a week longer on the market.
MIBOR CEO Shelley Specchio described the shift in the report: "Central Indiana continues its shift toward a more balanced market."
Marion County follows the same direction. MIBOR's single-family median for the county was $255,000 in September, up 2.0% from $250,000. Active listings were 3,068 against 2,540 a year earlier (up 20.8%), which is a 3.5-month supply against 2.7 months.
What Zillow's data and forecast add
Zillow posts its research numbers as downloadable files on its research data page. Two of its measures help here.
The first is the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). It estimates the typical value of houses and condos across the Indianapolis metro, smoothed and adjusted for season. Zillow put it at $291,634 in September 2026, up 1.0% from $288,638 a year earlier. That dollar figure and MIBOR's $320,000 measure different things: MIBOR reports what single-family homes sold for in 17 counties, and Zillow models a typical value for the metro. Each one should be compared with its own year-ago number.
The second is Zillow's forecast, which projects the change in that index from its September 30, 2026 level.
| Zillow's forecast, change in ZHVI | Indianapolis metro | U.S. |
|---|---|---|
| By October 2026 | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| By December 2026 | +0.8% | +0.3% |
| By September 2027 | +1.9% | +1.1% |
Zillow's listing data in September 2026 shows the same supply story. The Indianapolis metro had 9,110 homes for sale, up 12.8% from a year earlier, while Zillow's U.S. count rose 2.4%. Zillow also reported that 35.8% of Indianapolis listings had a price cut, against 26.9% across the U.S. Those figures describe asking prices. Sellers are lowering them more often than the national average, and MIBOR's 98.1% of list price shows where the sales still landed.
Why the rate matters more than a small price move
Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.18% for the week of November 5, 2026. A year earlier it was 6.22%. The first survey of 2026, on January 8, came in at 6.16%, and the October peak was 7.40% on October 8 and October 15 (Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, U.S. averages).
Here is what that change does to the monthly payment on a $320,000 home, using MIBOR's September median as the price.
| Down payment | Principal and interest at 6.22% | Principal and interest at 7.18% | Extra per month |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% ($11,200 down, $308,800 loan) | $1,895 | $2,092 | $197 |
| 20% ($64,000 down, $256,000 loan) | $1,571 | $1,734 | $163 |
This is our math. The formula is payment = loan x i / (1 - (1 + i)^-360), where i is the annual rate divided by 12, for a 30-year fixed loan. It covers principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance and mortgage insurance come on top, and your lender sets your actual rate.
The payment rose about 10.4% on the same loan. Holding the payment at last year's level while paying 7.18% means borrowing about 9.4% less. On a $320,000 home with the same down-payment share, that is a price near $289,900. Prices falling a few percent would trim the payment a little. Only a big move in price or in the rate changes what a buyer pays each month.
What would have to change for prices to fall
MIBOR posts a new report by the second Friday of each month, so you can check the trend yourself. These are the numbers to watch.
- Closed and pending sales. September closed sales were down 3.5% and pending sales were down 6.8% from a year earlier. Several more months of declines would mean fewer buyers at current prices.
- Months of supply. It was 2.9 in September, up from 2.4. A steady climb gives buyers more room to negotiate.
- Days on market. The median reached 27 days, up from 20. Longer waits give buyers more room to negotiate.
- Share of price cuts. Zillow's figure for the Indianapolis metro was 35.8% in September, almost the same as the 35.7% a year earlier.
- The mortgage rate. At 7.18%, buyers qualify for less home than they did at 6.22%.
Right now the first three have moved toward buyers while the median price is still above last year's. If sales, supply and days on market keep moving together over several months, prices would be the next number to follow. September's report does not show that yet.
What this means for buyers and sellers
Buyers. You have more homes to choose from than a year ago. Roots agent Ian DeFelice, who works with first-time buyers, wrote about what a first-time buyer can ask for in Indianapolis right now. Start with the payment you can carry comfortably at today's rate.
Sellers. Price from the closed sales of the last 90 days. Homes are taking about a week longer to sell, and the typical home sold for 98.1% of list price in September. Our weekly Indianapolis market update tracks these numbers.
Want these numbers for your own price range? Talk with a Roots agent and we will pull the MIBOR figures for the home you have in mind.
Sources: MIBOR Market Insights Report, September 2026 data (17 central Indiana counties, single-family; Marion County page; quote from MIBOR CEO Shelley Specchio); Zillow research data (ZHVI, ZHVI forecast, for-sale inventory and share of listings with a price cut, Indianapolis metro and U.S., September 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30-year fixed averages, weeks of November 6, 2025 and November 5, 2026, January 8, 2026 and October 8 and 15, 2026). Payment figures are our calculation, principal and interest only. Forecasts are estimates and can be wrong.
Frequently asked questions
Quick answers from this guide.